Shakhtar Donetsk 1-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Dnipro-1 at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record at Arena Lviv: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Shakhtar Donetsk are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shakhtar Donetsk at 2.10 PPG versus Dnipro-1's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Shakhtar Donetsk's 30% rate and Dnipro-1's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 54% versus Dnipro-1 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 61% | Dnipro-1 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 xG and Dnipro-1 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.242 / defence 0.878 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.057 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.209. Data: 41 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 43 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 41% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 31%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shakhtar Donetsk 30% | Dnipro-1 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 41% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 / Dnipro-1 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.242 / def 0.878 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.057 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Dnipro-1 xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 41% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1?
Record (3 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 2W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.24x the league average against Dnipro-1's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.55
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.45
1.12
Dnipro-1 xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.12 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 29W 9D 3L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 27W 7D 7L from 41 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shakhtar Donetsk on 2.34 PPG, Dnipro-1 on 2.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.53 PPG from 19 outings (15W 3D 1L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 12W 3D 4L from 19 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.76 scored and 0.90 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Dnipro-1's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 29W 9D 3L in their last 41 games (2.34 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 27W 7D 7L in their last 41 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.53 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 42%, Dnipro-1 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 53% (Dnipro-1). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 47% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 53% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shakhtar Donetsk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 xG and Dnipro-1 1.12 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 41% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 31%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dnipro-1 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 61%, Dnipro-1 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shakhtar Donetsk 2.34 PPG, Dnipro-1 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dnipro-1 win broke the near-deadlock. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.