Polessya 1-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 40%, yet in-form Polessya provide a compelling counter-argument — this Polessya vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Polessya welcome Oleksandria to Tsentralnyi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Polessya, 0 for Oleksandria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Polessya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Oleksandria trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 47% versus Oleksandria 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 37% | Oleksandria 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.870 / defence 1.057 | Oleksandria attack 0.919 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.187. Data: 19 Polessya games / 48 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 27% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 40%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Oleksandria 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Polessya (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Polessya 67% | Oleksandria 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 27% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Polessya 0.90 / Oleksandria 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.870 / def 1.057 | Oleksandria attack 0.919 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Oleksandria xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Oleksandria kick off?
Polessya vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Polessya 1 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is Polessya vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Oleksandria part of?
Polessya vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 27% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Polessya and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Polessya 1W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Polessya and Oleksandria in?
Polessya (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Polessya's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Oleksandria's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
27%
3.68
33%
3.06
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.05
1.15
Oleksandria xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Polessya and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Polessya and 1.15 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Polessya come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 6D 4L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Polessya's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.63 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria in 26%.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Oleksandria in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Oleksandria away?
Polessya's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.67 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Polessya or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Polessya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Polessya won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Polessya's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
0
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Oleksandria?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, Oleksandria have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Polessya 2-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 67%, Oleksandria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Polessya) and 44% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 44%; Oleksandria in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Polessya's recent matches and 33% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Polessya's recent games and 44% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Polessya 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Polessya 1-2 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.15 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Oleksandria attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 27% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 40%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 37%, Oleksandria 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Oleksandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.