Polessya 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Polessya take on LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host LNZ Cherkasy at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Polessya have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 4W 3D 1L from 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Polessya have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Polessya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 50% versus LNZ Cherkasy 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 39% | LNZ Cherkasy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.12 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.999 / defence 1.022 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.857 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.294. Data: 18 Polessya games / 17 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Polessya 75% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Polessya 1.12 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.999 / def 1.022 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.857 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.13
LNZ Cherkasy xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya 0 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 33% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Polessya 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Polessya (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.00) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
34%
2.91
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.26
1.13
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Polessya and 1.13 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 9W 6D 3L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.06 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Polessya's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.88 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Polessya or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
1
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 75%, LNZ Cherkasy 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Polessya) and 50% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 50%; LNZ Cherkasy in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Polessya's recent matches and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Polessya's recent games and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Polessya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Polessya 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.12 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Polessya fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 33% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 39%, LNZ Cherkasy 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with LNZ Cherkasy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.