Oleksandria 0-0 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk meet at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Zorya Luhansk's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Oleksandria, 1.00 for Zorya Luhansk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Oleksandria 1W, Zorya Luhansk 3W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 49% versus Zorya Luhansk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 44% | Zorya Luhansk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.96 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.827 / defence 1.219 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.134 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.239. Data: 47 Oleksandria games / 45 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 54%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Zorya Luhansk 1.85. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zorya Luhansk at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 30% | Zorya Luhansk 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Oleksandria 0.96 / Zorya Luhansk 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.827 / def 1.219 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.134 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Zorya Luhansk xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Oleksandria 0 - 0 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 20% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 1 | Zorya Luhansk 3W.
What form are Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.83) and Zorya Luhansk's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.13x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 47/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
20%
4.91
25%
3.94
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.67
1.71
Zorya Luhansk xG
4.91
20%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
4%
27.18
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.71 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 18D 15L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zorya Luhansk sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (24W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Zorya Luhansk have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.78 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Zorya Luhansk in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 12W 18D 15L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.41 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won 4-1 on 18 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
3
Draws
4
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk?
From 10 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, Zorya Luhansk have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Zorya Luhansk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 64% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zorya Luhansk in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Zorya Luhansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 46% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 64% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 19, as Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.96 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.71 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 20% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 54%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Zorya Luhansk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.