Buriram United 6-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Police Tero.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Police Tero travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Buriram United have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Police Tero have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Buriram United in-play tendencies (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 52% and Police Tero 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 62% | Police Tero 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.65 xG and Police Tero 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.347 / defence 0.698 | Police Tero attack 1.115 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.243. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Buriram United games / 48 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 72% | Draw 18% | Police Tero 10%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Police Tero 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 30% | Police Tero 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 72% | Draw 18% | Police Tero 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 59% | xG Buriram United 2.65 / Police Tero 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.347 / def 0.698 | Police Tero attack 1.115 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Police Tero xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Police Tero kick off?
Buriram United vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Buriram United 6 - 2 Police Tero.
Where is Buriram United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Police Tero part of?
Buriram United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 72% chance of winning, Police Tero a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Buriram United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Police Tero?
Record (5 meetings): Buriram United 4W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Police Tero in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Police Tero (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.35) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.46
10%
10.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.62
0.97
Police Tero xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
10.11
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
7%
14.22
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
143.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.97 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 34W 11D 3L from 48 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 18L across 48 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Police Tero heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 16W 5D 1L from 22 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Police Tero's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.38 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 69%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 34W 11D 3L in their last 48 games (2.35 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 16W 14D 18L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Police Tero away?
Buriram United's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.41 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Police Tero in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Buriram United won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Buriram United
1
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 5, Police Tero have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Buriram United 6-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Police Tero?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 41%, Police Tero 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Buriram United and 68% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Buriram United's games and 73% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Buriram United's matches and 68% of Police Tero's.
Do Buriram United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Police Tero 6-2 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.65 xG and Police Tero 0.97 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Police Tero outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.35 / defence 0.70 against Police Tero attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 72% | Draw 18% | Police Tero 10%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 62%, Police Tero 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Police Tero's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.