Police Tero 1-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Police Tero welcome Nakhon Pathom to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's home record at Boonyachinda Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Police Tero) versus 1.10 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Police Tero, 0 for Nakhon Pathom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Police Tero winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 84% and Nakhon Pathom 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Police Tero 79% | Nakhon Pathom 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.42 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.784 / defence 1.489 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.932 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.202. Police Tero's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Police Tero games / 19 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 31% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 42%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Nakhon Pathom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 80% | Nakhon Pathom 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 31% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Police Tero 1.42 / Nakhon Pathom 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.784 / def 1.489 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.932 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Nakhon Pathom xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom?
Police Tero 1 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 31% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (1 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom in?
Police Tero (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Police Tero's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
31%
3.22
27%
3.68
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.09
1.67
Nakhon Pathom xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.67 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Police Tero have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 4D 10L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Police Tero have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Police Tero are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.42 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.47 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 84% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Nakhon Pathom's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 0.56 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Police Tero
1
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom?
From 2 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Police Tero 1-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Police Tero see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Police Tero at 78%, Nakhon Pathom at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Police Tero and 56% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Police Tero's games and 78% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Police Tero's matches and 56% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero and Nakhon Pathom finished level at 1-1 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.42 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.67 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.78 / defence 1.49 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 31% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 42%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 79%, Nakhon Pathom 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 84% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.