Chiangrai United 0-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 51%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Singha Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's home record at Singha Chiangrai Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Singha Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lamphun Warrior's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangrai United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chiangrai United have won 1, Lamphun Warrior 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 70% and Lamphun Warrior 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 57% | Lamphun Warrior 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.946 / defence 0.917 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.027 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.226. Data: 48 Chiangrai United games / 47 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Lamphun Warrior 4.35. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 70% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Chiangrai United 1.79 / Lamphun Warrior 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.946 / def 0.917 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.027 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Lamphun Warrior xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Chiangrai United 0 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 51% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.80
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.95
1.15
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.15 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 17W 16D 14L from 47 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 19L across 47 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.43 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 10W 8D 4L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 3W 7D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.15 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 17W 16D 14L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.73 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 77%, Lamphun Warrior 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Chiangrai United) and 46% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Chiangrai United's games and 41% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Chiangrai United 0-2 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.15 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 57%, Lamphun Warrior 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.43 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.