Orebro SK 5-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Utsikten at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 28 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utsikten stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.40 PPG versus Utsikten's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Utsikten and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Utsikten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Utsikten in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 49% | Utsikten 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Utsikten 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.031 / defence 0.813 | Utsikten attack 0.865 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.273. Utsikten's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Orebro SK games / 53 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Utsikten 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Utsikten 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Orebro SK 1.29 / Utsikten 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.031 / def 0.813 | Utsikten attack 0.865 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Utsikten xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Utsikten kick off?
Orebro SK vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Orebro SK 5 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Orebro SK vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Utsikten part of?
Orebro SK vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 44% chance of winning, Utsikten a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orebro SK and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 2W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Utsikten in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Utsikten (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.17
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.19
0.90
Utsikten xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.90 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 16W 17D 20L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 18L across 53 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.23 PPG, Utsikten on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 9W 10D 7L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 12W 3D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.57 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.42 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Utsikten runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Orebro SK
1
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 4, Utsikten have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Orebro SK 2-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 38%, Utsikten 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Orebro SK) and 46% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Utsikten in 35%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 42% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Orebro SK's recent games and 46% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Utsikten tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Utsikten 5-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Utsikten 0.90 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.03 / defence 0.81 against Utsikten attack 0.86 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 44% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 49%, Utsikten 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Utsikten's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.23 PPG, Utsikten 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.