GIF Sundsvall 2-2 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 28 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gefle IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Gefle IF are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gefle IF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 1W, Gefle IF 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 3–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Gefle IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Gefle IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.47 xG and Gefle IF 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.893 / defence 1.142 | Gefle IF attack 0.861 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.273. Data: 23 GIF Sundsvall games / 23 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 28% | Gefle IF 31%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Gefle IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gefle IF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Gefle IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 28% | Gefle IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.47 / Gefle IF 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.893 / def 1.142 | Gefle IF attack 0.861 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gefle IF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 2 Gefle IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 41% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Gefle IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.89) and Gefle IF's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.86x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.52
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.73
1.25
Gefle IF xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.25 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 7W 5D 11L from 23 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 9L across 23 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.39 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.26 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Gefle IF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.36 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Gefle IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 54%, Gefle IF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 46% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Gefle IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 64% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 46% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 24, as GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.47 xG and Gefle IF 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Gefle IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 28% | Gefle IF 31%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Gefle IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Gefle IF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.13 PPG, Gefle IF 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gefle IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.