Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Trelleborg welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 3 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 66% and Jonkopings Sodra 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 64% | Jonkopings Sodra 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.74 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.889 / defence 1.244 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.868 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.273. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Trelleborg games / 53 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 29%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.45. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Jonkopings Sodra lead the H2H ledger, but Trelleborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Trelleborg 1.74 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.889 / def 1.244 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.868 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Jonkopings Sodra xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 45% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (5 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 3W.
What form are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.89x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.86
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.38
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.38 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 21W 12D 20L from 53 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 21L across 53 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.42 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 12W 4D 10L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 5W 11D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.45 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Jonkopings Sodra in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 21W 12D 20L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 16W 16D 21L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.54 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
3
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 58%, Jonkopings Sodra 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Trelleborg and 58% for Jonkopings Sodra. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Trelleborg's games and 65% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Trelleborg's matches and 58% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Jonkopings Sodra 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.74 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.38 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.24 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.87 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 45% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 29%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 64%, Jonkopings Sodra 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.42 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.