Jeju United FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeju United FC face Jeonbuk Motors.

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Match Analysis

Jeju United FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeju United FC stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Jeju United FC have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Jeonbuk Motors — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Jeonbuk Motors's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 1.50 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Jeju United FC, 2 for Jeonbuk Motors and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Jeju United FC 1–2 Jeonbuk Motors — a Jeonbuk Motors win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 49% versus Jeonbuk Motors 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 46% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.48 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.892 / defence 1.060 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.213 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Jeonbuk Motors have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 66 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 66.

Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.81 | Draw 4.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 40% (last 10 away games).

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