Jeju United FC 1-3 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 42%, yet in-form Gwangju FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gwangju FC make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Jeju United FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeju United FC have posted 2W 4D 4L at Jeju World Cup Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gwangju FC away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Gwangju FC are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 53% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jeju United FC 45% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Gwangju FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.064 | Gwangju FC attack 0.892 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.116. Data: 42 Jeju United FC games / 41 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Gwangju FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gwangju FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 40% | Gwangju FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Jeju United FC 1.42 / Gwangju FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.918 / def 1.064 | Gwangju FC attack 0.892 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gwangju FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 3 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 42% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.92) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.89x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.09
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.06
Gwangju FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.06 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 11D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (16W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeju United FC's home form reads 5W 7D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gwangju FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 53%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jeju United FC) and 26% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 32%; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Jeju United FC 1-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Gwangju FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Gwangju FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 25%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 45%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.