Al Taee 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taee have posted 4W 1D 5L at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Taee against 0.90 for Al-Ittihad FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al Taee's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 50% versus Al-Ittihad FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.118 / defence 1.164 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.982 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.395. Data: 48 Al Taee games / 48 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Taee 1.43 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.118 / def 1.164 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.982 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Taee 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 4W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.12) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (0.98x) against Al Taee's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
34%
2.93
25%
4.07
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.02
1.59
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.43
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.59 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 15W 6D 27L from 48 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 8L across 48 games — 2.08 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 11W 2D 10L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 13W 7D 3L across 23 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 15W 6D 27L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 30W 10D 8L in their last 48 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.52 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2024, when Al Taee 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Taee and 56% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Taee's recent matches and 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Taee's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taee 0-3 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.59 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 60%, Al-Ittihad FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.