Al Riyadh 1-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Damac at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 28 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Damac — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Damac — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Riyadh have won 0, Damac 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Damac trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 50% versus Damac 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 61% | Damac 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.80 xG and Damac 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.571 / defence 1.055 | Damac attack 1.010 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.409. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.571 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Al Riyadh games / 48 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 27% | Damac 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Damac 1.89. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 33% | Damac 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 27% | Damac 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Riyadh 0.80 / Damac 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.571 / def 1.055 | Damac attack 1.010 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Damac (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Damac xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Damac kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Damac kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 28 December 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Al Riyadh 1 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Damac part of?
Al Riyadh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 19% chance of winning, Damac a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Riyadh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
19%
5.15
27%
3.65
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.30
1.50
Damac xG
5.15
19%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
4%
23.11
24%
4.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.50 for Damac, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 4W 4D 10L from 18 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 4L across 18 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Damac's season.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.94 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 games (0.89 PPG), while Damac have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.00 PPG; Damac away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Damac runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2026, when Damac won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 33%, Damac 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Riyadh) and 44% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Damac in 33%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 56% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 44% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Damac tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Damac 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Damac 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.80 xG and Damac 1.50 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Damac landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.57 / defence 1.05 against Damac attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 27% | Damac 53%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 61%, Damac 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.