Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Al-Hazm travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 5D 4L in their last 9 away fixtures (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 9 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Al-Ettifaq hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 2–0 Al-Hazm — a Al-Ettifaq win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Ettifaq and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Al-Hazm trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 50% versus Al-Hazm 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al-Hazm 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.66 xG and Al-Hazm 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.897 / defence 0.980 | Al-Hazm attack 0.696 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.409. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 48 games and Al-Hazm's last 18.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.88 | Draw 3.90 | Al-Hazm 4.69. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ettifaq 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 78% (last 9 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights