Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Shabab at 1.60 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 2 for Al-Fateh and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 49% versus Al-Fateh 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.10 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.179 / defence 0.971 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Al Shabab games / 63 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 4.35. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Shabab 2.10 / Al-Fateh 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.179 / def 0.971 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Al Shabab 3 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 52% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.18x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.07
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.48
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
3%
35.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.38 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 28W 13D 22L from 63 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 25L across 63 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.54 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 17W 5D 9L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 13W 5D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 63%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 28W 13D 22L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 25W 13D 25L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.81 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
4
Draws
4
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 42%, Al-Fateh 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Shabab and 81% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Al Shabab's games and 71% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Shabab's matches and 81% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fateh 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fateh 3-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.10 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Al-Fateh attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.54 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.