Damac 1-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Damac take on Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Al-Raed travel to Dhamak Club Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Damac at Dhamak Club Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Raed are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Damac, 2 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Raed 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.766 / defence 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.960 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Damac's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Damac games / 63 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 35% | Al-Raed 33%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Raed 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 30% | Al-Raed 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 35% | Al-Raed 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Damac 1.07 / Al-Raed 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.766 / def 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.960 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Raed xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Raed kick off?
Damac vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Damac vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Raed part of?
Damac vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 32% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Damac and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 2W.
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
35%
2.88
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Damac xG
Total xG
2.17
1.10
Al-Raed xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Damac and 1.10 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Damac have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 19D 25L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Raed's form line: 18W 16D 29L from 63 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.21 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 8W 9D 14L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.29 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al-Raed
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 19W 19D 25L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 18W 16D 29L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Raed away?
Damac's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al-Raed have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Raed?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 52%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Damac) and 61% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Raed in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Damac's recent matches and 58% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Damac's recent games and 61% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Raed share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Raed finished level at 1-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.10 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.77 / defence 0.86 against Al-Raed attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 32% | Draw 35% | Al-Raed 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Raed 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.21 PPG, Al-Raed 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.