Al-Fateh 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh Club Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 4D 4L at Al Fateh Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Fateh. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Hazm (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Fateh 1W, Al-Hazm 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 78% and Al-Hazm 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 66% | Al-Hazm 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.05 xG and Al-Hazm 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.079 / defence 1.107 | Al-Hazm attack 0.813 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Al-Fateh games / 32 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Hazm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Fateh 2.05 / Al-Hazm 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.079 / def 1.107 | Al-Hazm attack 0.813 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Hazm xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fateh 2 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 55% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.81x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 62/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.10
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.28
1.23
Al-Hazm xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
3%
36.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.23 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 11W 9D 12L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Hazm's form line: 3W 12D 17L from 32 games, 0.66 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 7D 8L from 16 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.97 scored and 2.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 12D 17L in their last 32 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Hazm 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 50% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Hazm in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Fateh's games and 62% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al-Hazm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.05 xG and Al-Hazm 1.23 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Al-Hazm attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 62/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 21%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 66%, Al-Hazm 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.