Al Riyadh 0-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 37%, yet in-form Al Riyadh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al Riyadh. A 0.75 PPG lead over Al Okhdood (1.00 vs 0.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 25% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 75% | Al Okhdood 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al Okhdood 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.779 / defence 1.184 | Al Okhdood attack 0.719 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.305. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Al Riyadh games / 4 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 31% | Al Okhdood 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Al Okhdood 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Riyadh (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 25% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 31% | Al Okhdood 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Riyadh 0.99 / Al Okhdood 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.779 / def 1.184 | Al Okhdood attack 0.719 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Okhdood xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Al Riyadh 0 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 31% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 W-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.72x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.21
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.10
1.11
Al Okhdood xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.11 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 4, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 25%, Al Okhdood 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al Riyadh) and 25% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 25% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Riyadh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al Okhdood 1.11 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 31% | Al Okhdood 37%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 75%, Al Okhdood 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Al Okhdood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.