Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Raed travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Fayha's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Raed — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.10 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Raed 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Al-Fayha 1–1 Al-Raed — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Raed trading profile (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Al-Raed 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 47% | Al-Raed 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.30 xG and Al-Raed 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.978 / defence 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.857 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.339. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 34 games and Al-Raed's last 34.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Raed 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.32 | Draw 3.42 | Al-Raed 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Raed 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.30 / Al-Raed 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.978 / def 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.857 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Raed xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 43% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 34 games and Al-Raed's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.42
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.29
0.99
Al-Raed xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.99 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 11D 14L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Raed's form line: 10W 7D 17L from 34 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 16 home games (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 4D 8L from their last 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.29 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 10W 7D 17L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won Al-Fayha 0-5 Al-Raed.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al-Raed have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 69% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 38% of games; Al-Raed in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 56% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Fayha's matches and 69% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 88% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Al-Fayha and Al-Raed drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.30 xG and Al-Raed 0.99 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Raed landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Al-Raed attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Raed 28%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 47%, Al-Raed 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.