Al Okhdood 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 79% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Okhdood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Thursday 14 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 5 games, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 3L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%).

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 40% of Al Okhdood's games and 20% of Al-Ittihad FC's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 80%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.735 / defence 1.197 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.512 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.402. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Al-Ittihad FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.639, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.512, which lifts their away xG to 2.54. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 5 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 35.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Ittihad FC 79%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 13.83 | Draw 7.03 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.27. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (79%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 40% (last 5 games) | Al-Ittihad FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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