Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Fateh.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 1.20 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Fateh 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2023, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 0–2 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Al-Fateh trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 43% versus Al-Fateh 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Fateh 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 xG and Al-Fateh 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.916 / defence 1.190 | Al-Fateh attack 1.194 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.392. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 35 games and Al-Fateh's last 35.

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.84 | Draw 4.59 | Al-Fateh 1.92. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).

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