Al-Nassr 6-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al Wehda Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Wehda Club make the trip to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 1D 1L at Al Awal Park at King Saud University — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Wehda Club (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Nassr. A 1.80 PPG lead over Al Wehda Club (2.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Al Wehda Club — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 51% versus Al Wehda Club 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 70% | Al Wehda Club 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.03 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.519 / defence 1.143 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.689 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.388. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.519 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Al-Nassr games / 59 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Al Wehda Club 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al Wehda Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Nassr 2.03 / Al Wehda Club 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.519 / def 1.143 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.689 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Wehda Club xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Nassr 6 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 58% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.52) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.69x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.41
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.12
1.09
Al Wehda Club xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
3%
39.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.09 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 43W 9D 7L from 59 games, a 2.34 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 29L across 59 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 22W 5D 2L from 29 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 7W 4D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.49 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.14 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 43W 9D 7L in their last 59 games (2.34 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.45 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 6-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 62%, Al Wehda Club 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Al-Nassr) and 41% (Al Wehda Club). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 41% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Nassr's matches and 41% of Al Wehda Club's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Wehda Club 6-0 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.03 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.09 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Wehda Club landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.52 / defence 1.14 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 19%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 70%, Al Wehda Club 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.