Al-Fateh 2-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 2 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Riyadh and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 76% and Al Riyadh 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al Riyadh 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.71 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.061 / defence 1.015 | Al Riyadh attack 0.656 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.399. Data: 59 Al-Fateh games / 29 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Al Riyadh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 50% | Al Riyadh 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.71 / Al Riyadh 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.061 / def 1.015 | Al Riyadh attack 0.656 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Riyadh xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 2 May 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Fateh 2 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 55% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.66x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.97
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.64
0.93
Al Riyadh xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
4%
27.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.93 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 29 games, going 11W 7D 11L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 0.97 PPG from 29 outings (7W 7D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 5W 3D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.90 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al Riyadh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 11W 7D 11L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 7W 7D 15L in their last 29 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 57%, Al Riyadh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 64% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Riyadh in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Fateh's games and 57% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Fateh's matches and 64% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.71 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Al Riyadh attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 20%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.