Al-Hazm 0-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Thursday 2 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Okhdood away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.70 for Al Okhdood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Okhdood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al Okhdood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 55% | Al Okhdood 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.47 xG and Al Okhdood 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / defence 1.451 | Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.411. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al-Hazm games / 29 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Al Okhdood 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al Okhdood 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Hazm 1.47 / Al Okhdood 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / def 1.451 | Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al Okhdood xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 2 May 2024 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Hazm 0 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 41% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.77) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.64x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.84
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.77
1.31
Al Okhdood xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.31 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.66 PPG on a 3W 10D 16L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Okhdood's form line: 8W 3D 18L from 29 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.66 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.93 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.64 PPG from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 9L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.34 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.93 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 10D 16L in their last 29 games (0.66 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 8W 3D 18L in their last 29 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Hazm's home record (0.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.64 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 57%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Hazm and 57% for Al Okhdood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Hazm's matches and 57% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hazm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Al-Hazm and Al Okhdood drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.47 xG and Al Okhdood 1.31 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.77 / defence 1.45 against Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.35, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 33%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 55%, Al Okhdood 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.66 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.79 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.