SC Braga 1-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Braga at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as SC Braga welcome Famalicao to Estádio Municipal de Braga. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 August 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Braga — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SC Braga haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SC Braga's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Braga this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — SC Braga are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Braga than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Famalicao haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, SC Braga have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 2, Famalicao 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Famalicao trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 38% versus Famalicao 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 59% | Famalicao 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.90 xG and Famalicao 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.287 / defence 0.914 | Famalicao attack 1.060 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.100. SC Braga carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 SC Braga games / 34 Famalicao games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SC Braga 57% | Draw 22% | Famalicao 21%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Famalicao 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 40% | Famalicao 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 57% | Draw 22% | Famalicao 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Braga 1.90 / Famalicao 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.287 / def 0.914 | Famalicao attack 1.060 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Famalicao xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Famalicao kick off?
SC Braga vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Famalicao?
SC Braga 1 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is SC Braga vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Famalicao part of?
SC Braga vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 57% chance of winning, Famalicao a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Braga and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Famalicao?
Record (4 meetings): SC Braga 2W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are SC Braga and Famalicao in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 1.29x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.50
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.97
1.07
Famalicao xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
32.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.07 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Famalicao?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga come into this having played 34 games, going 25W 3D 6L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. SC Braga haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (13W 5D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. Famalicao haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Braga's home form reads 13W 2D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Pre-Season
Famalicao
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Famalicao in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 25W 3D 6L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 13W 5D 16L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Famalicao away?
SC Braga's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.41 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.94 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Famalicao in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and Famalicao runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2022, when SC Braga won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SC Braga
4
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 4, Famalicao have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SC Braga 2-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Famalicao?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 29%, Famalicao 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SC Braga) and 53% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Famalicao in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of SC Braga's recent matches and 53% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SC Braga's recent games and 53% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Famalicao tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat SC Braga 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat SC Braga 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.90 xG and Famalicao 1.07 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Famalicao outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.29 / defence 0.91 against Famalicao attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 57% | Draw 22% | Famalicao 21%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Famalicao win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 59%, Famalicao 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Famalicao's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Famalicao winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.