Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Portimonense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Portimonense meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Famalicao's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Portimonense have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Portimonense have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Famalicao. A 0.70 PPG lead over Portimonense (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Portimonense edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Famalicao 1–1 Portimonense — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 51% versus Portimonense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | Portimonense 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.74 xG and Portimonense 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.868 / defence 1.007 | Portimonense attack 0.958 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.260. Portimonense's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Famalicao's projected output up. Data: built from Famalicao's last 63 games and Portimonense's last 63.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 50% | Draw 24% | Portimonense 27%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.02 | Draw 4.19 | Portimonense 3.75. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Famalicao's last 10 home games and Portimonense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Famalicao 70% (last 10 home games) | Portimonense 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 50% | Draw 24% | Portimonense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Famalicao 1.74 / Portimonense 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.868 / def 1.007 | Portimonense attack 0.958 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Portimonense xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Famalicao vs Portimonense FAQs
What time does Famalicao vs Portimonense kick off?
Famalicao vs Portimonense kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Famalicao 2 - 2 Portimonense.
Where is Famalicao vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Portimonense part of?
Famalicao vs Portimonense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 50% chance of winning, Portimonense a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Famalicao and Portimonense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Famalicao vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.87x the league average against Portimonense's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.96x) against Famalicao's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Famalicao's last 63 games and Portimonense's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.19
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.95
1.22
Portimonense xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
5%
21.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Famalicao vs Portimonense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.22 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 16D 26L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Portimonense sit at 0.97 PPG from 63 outings (17W 10D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Famalicao against 0.97 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Famalicao's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Portimonense have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 2D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.90 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Portimonense
Current Season
Famalicao (Home) vs Portimonense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Famalicao
Current Season
Portimonense
Current Season
❓ Famalicao vs Portimonense Form FAQs
What form are Famalicao and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 16D 26L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 17W 10D 36L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Portimonense away?
Famalicao's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.55 PPG; Portimonense away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won Famalicao 0-3 Portimonense on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Famalicao
2
Draws
3
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Famalicao vs Portimonense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Portimonense?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Famalicao have won 1, Portimonense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Portimonense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2024: Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Portimonense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Famalicao) and 48% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; Portimonense in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Famalicao vs Portimonense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Famalicao and Portimonense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Famalicao's recent matches and 36% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Famalicao and Portimonense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Famalicao's recent games and 48% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Portimonense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Famalicao's recent matches and 74% of Portimonense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Portimonense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Portimonense finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.74 xG and Portimonense 1.22 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Portimonense attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 50% | Draw 24% | Portimonense 27%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, Portimonense 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Portimonense's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.25 PPG, Portimonense 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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