Estoril 2-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Estoril against 1.40 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Estoril 2W, Famalicao 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 51% versus Famalicao 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 58% | Famalicao 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.12 xG and Famalicao 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.870 / defence 0.985 | Famalicao attack 1.099 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.140. Data: 45 Estoril games / 45 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 33% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 39%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Famalicao 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 20% | Famalicao 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 33% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Estoril 1.12 / Famalicao 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.870 / def 0.985 | Famalicao attack 1.099 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Famalicao xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Famalicao kick off?
Estoril vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Estoril 2 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Estoril vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Famalicao part of?
Estoril vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 33% chance of winning, Famalicao a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estoril and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
Record (6 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Estoril vs Famalicao?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.87) and Famalicao's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.10x) against Estoril's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.58
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.36
1.23
Famalicao xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Estoril and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Estoril and 1.23 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 11W 10D 24L from 45 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 14L across 45 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Estoril against 1.31 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 9W 3D 10L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Famalicao's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.09 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 14W 17D 14L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Famalicao away?
Estoril's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.36 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Estoril or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Famalicao in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Estoril 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 36%, Famalicao 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Estoril) and 41% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games; Famalicao in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Estoril's recent matches and 50% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Estoril's recent games and 41% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Famalicao tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat Famalicao 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Famalicao 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.12 xG and Famalicao 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Famalicao attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 33% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 58%, Famalicao 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Famalicao's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.96 PPG, Famalicao 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.