Benfica 4-1 FC Porto – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Benfica at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Benfica face FC Porto.

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Fixture Analysis

Benfica welcome FC Porto to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Benfica have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Benfica's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Benfica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Porto stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

FC Porto away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.70 (FC Porto). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Benfica, 3 for FC Porto and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Benfica 0–5 FC Porto — a FC Porto win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

FC Porto in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 46% versus FC Porto 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 63% | FC Porto 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.67 xG and FC Porto 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.696 / defence 0.744 | FC Porto attack 1.507 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.166. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.696 — their 1.67 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Porto bring a tight defence (rating 0.695, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Benfica's projected output down. FC Porto have an above-average attack rating of 1.507, which lifts their away xG to 1.31. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling FC Porto's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 43 games and FC Porto's last 44.

Result probabilities: Benfica 46% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 30%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.17 | Draw 4.18 | FC Porto 3.33. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and FC Porto's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Porto 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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