Widzew Łódź 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 30 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Widzew Łódź are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Raków Częstochowa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Raków Częstochowa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.028 / defence 0.956 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.980 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.139. Data: 63 Widzew Łódź games / 63 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 50% | Raków Częstochowa 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.44 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.028 / def 0.956 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.980 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.32
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 14D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.92 PPG from 63 outings (35W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 14W 3D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.45 points per game from 31 outings (12W 9D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.79 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 35W 16D 12L in their last 63 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.45 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Raków Częstochowa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Widzew Łódź) and 52% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 61% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Raków Częstochowa 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.