Raków Częstochowa 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 50%, yet in-form Gornik Zabrze provide a compelling counter-argument — this Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gornik Zabrze travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gornik Zabrze have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gornik Zabrze — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 2 for Gornik Zabrze and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Gornik Zabrze — a Gornik Zabrze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 50% versus Gornik Zabrze 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 48% | Gornik Zabrze 48%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Raków Częstochowa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.81 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.171 / defence 0.832 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.294 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.068. Gornik Zabrze have an above-average attack rating of 1.294, which lifts their away xG to 1.15. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 62 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 62.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.98 | Draw 3.60 | Gornik Zabrze 4.58. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Gornik Zabrze's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 50% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.81 / Gornik Zabrze 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.171 / def 0.832 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.294 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gornik Zabrze xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 50% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.17) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 62 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.60
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.96
1.15
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
4%
27.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.15 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 16D 11L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.50 PPG from 62 outings (26W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 23W 7D 1L across their last 31 home games, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.34 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 35W 16D 11L in their last 62 games (1.95 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 26W 15D 21L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.45 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
6
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 39%, Gornik Zabrze 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Raków Częstochowa) and 55% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 61% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 55% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 84% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.81 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.15 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.29 / defence 1.05, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 48%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.