Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Puszcza Niepołomice versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Korona Kielce (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Puszcza Niepołomice, 0.90 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Korona Kielce and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 3–5 with Korona Kielce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Puszcza Niepołomice — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Puszcza Niepołomice 66% and Korona Kielce 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 45% | Korona Kielce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.45 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.927 / defence 1.114 | Korona Kielce attack 0.735 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.176. Data: 29 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 63 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 47% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Korona Kielce 4.35. Puszcza Niepołomice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% | Korona Kielce 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 47% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.45 / Korona Kielce 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.927 / def 1.114 | Korona Kielce attack 0.735 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 47% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 0 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 0.93x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.73x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.34
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.42
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0.96 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 7W 11D 11L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Korona Kielce's form line: 6W 12D 11L from 29 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.03 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (5W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Korona Kielce have gone 1W 5D 8L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Korona Kielce's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Korona Kielce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 7W 11D 11L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 6W 12D 11L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Korona Kielce away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.57 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Korona Kielce 2-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Korona Kielce see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 79%, Korona Kielce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 36% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 50% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 36% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.45 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Korona Kielce attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 47% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 23%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 45%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.10 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.