Puszcza Niepołomice 0-6 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GKS Katowice make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 4 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
GKS Katowice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, GKS Katowice have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for GKS Katowice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Puszcza Niepołomice — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
GKS Katowice — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 50% versus GKS Katowice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | GKS Katowice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.027 / defence 1.101 | GKS Katowice attack 0.799 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 0.994. GKS Katowice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 10 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 61% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 17%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | GKS Katowice 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Puszcza Niepołomice (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Puszcza Niepołomice at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Puszcza Niepołomice 70% | GKS Katowice 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 61% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.88 / GKS Katowice 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.027 / def 1.101 | GKS Katowice attack 0.799 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.520 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
0.88
GKS Katowice xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice?
Puszcza Niepołomice 0 - 6 GKS Katowice.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 61% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. GKS Katowice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 1.03x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (0.80x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.54
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.75
0.88
GKS Katowice xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
38.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0.88 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 5D 4L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or GKS Katowice away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.25 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice?
From 2 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when GKS Katowice 3-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 75%, GKS Katowice 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 50% for GKS Katowice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 25% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 50% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GKS Katowice run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Puszcza Niepołomice 0-6 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 0.88 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice fell 1.9 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice outscored their 0.88 projection by 5.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against GKS Katowice attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 61% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 17%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a GKS Katowice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 40%, GKS Katowice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 0.80 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.