ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

ODD Ballklubb at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2020, ended ODD Ballklubb 1–6 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 57% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.965 / defence 1.028 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.246 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.246, which lifts their away xG to 1.66. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 33 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 35.

Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 25% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.96 | Draw 3.61 | Bodo/Glimt 2.13. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 80% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).

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