Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stromsgodset and Mjondalen meet at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 1W 4D 5L at Marienlyst Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Mjondalen have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjondalen are 0.50 PPG clear of Stromsgodset in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stromsgodset lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 0–3 with Mjondalen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 63% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 67% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.60 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.899 / defence 1.121 | Mjondalen attack 0.879 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Stromsgodset games / 30 Mjondalen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 42% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 31%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Mjondalen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjondalen (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Mjondalen 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 42% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 1.60 / Mjondalen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.899 / def 1.121 | Mjondalen attack 0.879 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mjondalen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen part of?
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 42% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.88x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.71
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.93
1.33
Mjondalen xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.33 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 19L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Stromsgodset against 0.97 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 2W 6D 6L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 2W 2D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Mjondalen away?
Stromsgodset's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 0.86 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 3-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Mjondalen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 64%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Stromsgodset) and 43% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 36% of games; Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 43% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Mjondalen finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.60 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Mjondalen attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 42% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 31%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG, Mjondalen 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.