Kristiansund BK 1-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 6 as Kristiansund BK welcome Lillestrom to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK at Kristiansund Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.72 xG and Lillestrom 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.887 / defence 0.963 | Lillestrom attack 0.824 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Lillestrom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Kristiansund BK games / 3 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 21%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Lillestrom 4.76. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.72 / Lillestrom 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.887 / def 0.963 | Lillestrom attack 0.824 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lillestrom xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 52% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Kristiansund BK home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.67
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.75
1.03
Lillestrom xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
26.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.03 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
2
Draws
1
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Lillestrom have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Lillestrom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Lillestrom 1-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.72 xG and Lillestrom 1.03 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Lillestrom attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 35/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 21%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.