MVV 1-4 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
MVV welcome NAC Breda to De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 19 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, MVV have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, MVV have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 0.90 PPG, NAC Breda 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from MVV's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
NAC Breda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for MVV.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended MVV 1–4 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
The H2H data backs the away side. NAC Breda have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
NAC Breda trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 70% and NAC Breda 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 68% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.20 xG and NAC Breda 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.763 / defence 0.992 | NAC Breda attack 1.055 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.363. MVV's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from MVV's last 52 games and NAC Breda's last 52.
Result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 41%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.31 | Draw 3.42 | NAC Breda 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (NAC Breda 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (MVV's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: MVV 80% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 19 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG MVV 1.20 / NAC Breda 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.763 / def 0.992 | NAC Breda attack 1.055 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.43
NAC Breda xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ MVV vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does MVV vs NAC Breda kick off?
MVV vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 19 November 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs NAC Breda?
MVV 1 - 4 NAC Breda.
Where is MVV vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs NAC Breda part of?
MVV vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 30% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both MVV and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will MVV vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.76x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from MVV's last 52 games and NAC Breda's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.42
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
MVV xG
Total xG
2.63
1.43
NAC Breda xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ MVV vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are MVV and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for MVV and 1.43 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV come into this having played 54 games, going 22W 9D 23L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.50 PPG from 54 outings (24W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.39 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
MVV's home form reads 14W 5D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.69 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 74%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
MVV (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
MVV
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ MVV vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are MVV and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 22W 9D 23L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or NAC Breda away?
MVV's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.81 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2021, when NAC Breda won NAC Breda 3-0 MVV.
MVV's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
MVV
0
Draws
7
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ MVV vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and NAC Breda?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, MVV have won 2, NAC Breda have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: NAC Breda 1-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 73%, NAC Breda at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for MVV and 73% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ MVV vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in MVV and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of MVV's games and 73% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are MVV and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of MVV's matches and 73% of NAC Breda's.
Do MVV and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of MVV's recent matches and 88% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 1-4 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat MVV 1-4 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.20 xG and NAC Breda 1.43 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against NAC Breda attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 30% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 41%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 68%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.39 PPG, NAC Breda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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