Emmen 1-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Emmen welcome Jong PSV U21 to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Emmen, 0 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 56% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 54% | Jong PSV U21 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.93 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.991 / defence 1.090 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.109 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.387. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Emmen games / 52 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 44% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 34%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Jong PSV U21 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 44% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Emmen 1.93 / Jong PSV U21 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.991 / def 1.090 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.109 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Emmen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Jong PSV U21 xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Emmen 1 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 44% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Emmen and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.99x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.40
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.60
1.68
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
5%
20.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Emmen and 1.68 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 15D 21L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (17W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.21 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 8W 9D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.56 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 25L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Emmen's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.32 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Jong PSV U21 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Jong PSV U21 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Emmen) and 64% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 32% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Emmen's games and 68% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Emmen's matches and 64% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Emmen and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong PSV U21 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.93 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.68 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.11 / defence 1.27, drawn from 15/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 44% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 34%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 54%, Jong PSV U21 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.21 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.