Den Bosch 1-4 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Den Bosch face Telstar.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 November 2023 at 17:45 UK time.
Current Form
Den Bosch's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Telstar have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.00 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Den Bosch, 3 for Telstar and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended Den Bosch 0–1 Telstar — a Telstar win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Telstar — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 56% versus Telstar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 67% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.48 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.830 / defence 1.088 | Telstar attack 0.637 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.328. Telstar's attack rating of 0.637 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 52 games and Telstar's last 52.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 49% | Draw 29% | Telstar 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.06 | Draw 3.40 | Telstar 4.55. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 70% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 17 November 2023 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 49% | Draw 29% | Telstar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Den Bosch 1.48 / Telstar 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.830 / def 1.088 | Telstar attack 0.637 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Telstar xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Telstar FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Telstar kick off?
Den Bosch vs Telstar kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Friday 17 November 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Den Bosch 1 - 4 Telstar.
Where is Den Bosch vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Telstar part of?
Den Bosch vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 49% chance of winning, Telstar a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Den Bosch and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Den Bosch vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.64x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 52 games and Telstar's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.40
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.40
0.92
Telstar xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.92 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 6D 33L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (17W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.21 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 4D 13L across their last 26 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 7D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.00 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Telstar
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 6D 33L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Telstar have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Telstar away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.19 PPG; Telstar away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Den Bosch and Telstar, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won Den Bosch 1-4 Telstar on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 1, Telstar have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 65%, Telstar 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Den Bosch) and 42% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Telstar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Den Bosch's games and 46% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Den Bosch's matches and 42% of Telstar's.
Do Den Bosch and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 69% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Telstar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Den Bosch 1-4 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.48 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Telstar attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 49% | Draw 29% | Telstar 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.87 PPG, Telstar 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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