Lecco 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Venezia encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Venezia in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Lecco have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Lecco have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Venezia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Venezia have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Venezia arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Lecco, 0 for Venezia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Lecco 2–2 Venezia — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Lecco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 54% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 52% | Venezia 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.78 xG and Venezia 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.733 / defence 1.234 | Venezia attack 1.147 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.222. Lecco's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Lecco's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Lecco's last 33 games and Venezia's last 71.

Result probabilities: Lecco 15% | Draw 27% | Venezia 58%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 6.72 | Draw 3.71 | Venezia 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lecco 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).

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