Reggiana 0-4 Cosenza – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Cosenza.

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Analysis & Preview

Cosenza travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Reggiana — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Reggiana have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reggiana at 1.10 PPG versus Cosenza's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Reggiana 0–2 Cosenza — a Cosenza win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 52% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 36% | Cosenza 39%). Note also that Cosenza surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Reggiana recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.76 xG and Cosenza 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.640 / defence 1.116 | Cosenza attack 0.837 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.206. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.640 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Reggiana's last 33 games and Cosenza's last 71.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 23% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 43%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.30 | Draw 2.93 | Cosenza 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reggiana's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 60% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 40% (last 10 away games).

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