Reggiana 0-4 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Cosenza travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Reggiana. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggiana have posted 1W 6D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reggiana at 1.10 PPG versus Cosenza's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 52% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 36% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.76 xG and Cosenza 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.640 / defence 1.116 | Cosenza attack 0.837 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.206. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.640 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Reggiana games / 71 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 23% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 43%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Cosenza 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 60% | Cosenza 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 23% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Reggiana 0.76 / Cosenza 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.640 / def 1.116 | Cosenza attack 0.837 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cosenza xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Cosenza kick off?
Reggiana vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 April 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Reggiana 0 - 4 Cosenza.
Where is Reggiana vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cosenza part of?
Reggiana vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 23% chance of winning, Cosenza a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Reggiana and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Cosenza in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.64x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
23%
4.30
34%
2.93
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.89
1.13
Cosenza xG
4.30
23%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.0 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.13 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 8W 16D 9L from 33 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 13L across 33 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.21 PPG, Cosenza on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 2W 10D 4L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 4W 6D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.06 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 8W 16D 9L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 8W 12D 13L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cosenza away?
Cosenza's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.00 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cosenza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reggiana's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
4
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Cosenza have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 62%, Cosenza 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Reggiana and 19% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Reggiana's recent matches and 38% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Reggiana's recent games and 19% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Cosenza run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Reggiana 0-4 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.76 xG and Cosenza 1.13 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.64 / defence 1.12 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 23% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 43%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 36%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.21 PPG, Cosenza 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.