Spezia 0-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spezia face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sampdoria at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Spezia — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Spezia have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sampdoria stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.70 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Spezia's games and 70% of Sampdoria's (from Spezia's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Spezia have won 2, Sampdoria 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Spezia 1–2 Sampdoria — a Sampdoria win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 49% versus Sampdoria 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 48% | Sampdoria 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.902 / defence 1.085 | Sampdoria attack 1.100 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.222. Data: built from Spezia's last 33 games and Sampdoria's last 33.
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 39%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.17 | Draw 3.41 | Sampdoria 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 60% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Spezia 1.29 / Sampdoria 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.902 / def 1.085 | Sampdoria attack 1.100 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sampdoria xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Spezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Spezia 0 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Spezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Spezia vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spezia and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 33 games and Sampdoria's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.41
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.46
Sampdoria xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Spezia and 1.46 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 12W 27D 32L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 16W 17D 38L from 71 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.89 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.03 PPG from their last 35 home games (7W 15D 13L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 9W 7D 19L from their last 35 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.00 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
Spezia (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Spezia vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 27D 32L in their last 71 games (0.89 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 17D 38L in their last 71 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Spezia's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.03 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spezia
3
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 4, Sampdoria have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 51%, Sampdoria 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 54% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 43% of games; Sampdoria in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Sampdoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Spezia's recent matches and 57% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 54% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Spezia's recent matches and 71% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 34, as Spezia and Sampdoria drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sampdoria landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Sampdoria attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 39%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 48%, Sampdoria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.89 PPG, Sampdoria 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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