Udinese 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Salernitana in Serie A (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Udinese at home: 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Udinese's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Udinese, 2 for Salernitana and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2023, ended Udinese 1–1 Salernitana — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Salernitana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 47% | Salernitana 59%). Note also that Salernitana surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Udinese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.56 xG and Salernitana 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.902 / defence 1.143 | Salernitana attack 0.720 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.189. Salernitana's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Udinese's last 64 games and Salernitana's last 64.
Result probabilities: Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 22%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.03 | Draw 3.49 | Salernitana 4.52. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 80% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, matchday 27 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Udinese 1.56 / Salernitana 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.902 / def 1.143 | Salernitana attack 0.720 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Udinese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Salernitana xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Salernitana FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Salernitana kick off?
Udinese vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Udinese 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Udinese vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Salernitana part of?
Udinese vs Salernitana is a Serie A fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 49% chance of winning, Salernitana a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Salernitana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.90x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.72x) against Udinese's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 64 games and Salernitana's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.49
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Salernitana xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Salernitana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Udinese and 0.98 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 27D 23L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Salernitana's form line: 11W 22D 31L from 64 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Udinese against 0.86 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 31 home games (7W 16D 8L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 12D 16L from their last 31 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.06 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Salernitana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Salernitana Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 14W 27D 23L in their last 64 games (1.08 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 22D 31L in their last 64 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Salernitana away?
Udinese's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.19 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Udinese and Salernitana, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won Salernitana 0-4 Udinese on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
2
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Salernitana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Salernitana have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Salernitana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Salernitana 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Udinese) and 52% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Salernitana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Salernitana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Salernitana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Udinese's recent games and 52% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Salernitana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Udinese's recent matches and 81% of Salernitana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Udinese and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.56 xG and Salernitana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Salernitana attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 22%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 47%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.08 PPG, Salernitana 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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