Atalanta 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Atalanta at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Bologna.

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Match Analysis

Atalanta host Bologna at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Atalanta — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Atalanta's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Bologna away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 2.00 PPG versus Bologna's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Atalanta, 2 for Bologna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Atalanta 0–1 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Atalanta in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 53% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 53% | Bologna 50%). Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.18 xG and Bologna 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.412 / defence 0.726 | Bologna attack 1.023 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.193. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.412 — their 2.18 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta have a tight defence (rating 0.726), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from Atalanta's last 64 games and Bologna's last 64.

Result probabilities: Atalanta 66% | Draw 21% | Bologna 13%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.52 | Draw 4.66 | Bologna 7.81. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 80% (last 10 away games).

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