Genoa 2-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Udinese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.50 PPG, Udinese 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Genoa have won 0, Udinese 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Udinese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.19 xG and Udinese 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.842 / defence 1.146 | Udinese attack 0.895 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.150. Data: 25 Genoa games / 63 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Udinese 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.19 / Udinese 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.842 / def 1.146 | Udinese attack 0.895 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Udinese xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Genoa 2 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, Udinese a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 3 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Genoa and Udinese in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Udinese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.16
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.37
1.18
Udinese xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Genoa and 1.18 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 20D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.10 PPG from 63 outings (14W 27D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 16W 11D 4L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (7W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.14 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 28W 20D 15L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while Udinese have gone 14W 27D 22L in their last 63 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Genoa's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.90 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Genoa or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Udinese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Udinese 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Genoa) and 42% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Udinese in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 45% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 42% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Udinese tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Udinese 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.19 xG and Udinese 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Udinese 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.