Lecce 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Udinese at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lecce 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Lecce have won 1, Udinese 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Udinese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 41% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Udinese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.04 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.675 / defence 1.110 | Udinese attack 0.898 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.271. Lecce's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Lecce games / 63 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 34% | Udinese 39%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Udinese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lecce 50% | Udinese 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 34% | Udinese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Lecce 1.04 / Udinese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.675 / def 1.110 | Udinese attack 0.898 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Udinese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Udinese kick off?
Lecce vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Lecce 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Lecce vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Udinese part of?
Lecce vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 27% chance of winning, Udinese a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lecce and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 2 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Lecce and Udinese in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
27%
3.65
34%
2.95
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.30
1.27
Udinese xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lecce and 1.27 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce come into this having played 63 games, going 14W 21D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.11 PPG from 63 outings (15W 25D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.00 PPG, Udinese on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lecce's home form reads 9W 11D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (8W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 21D 28L in their last 63 games (1.00 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 25D 23L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Udinese away?
Lecce's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.23 PPG; Udinese away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lecce's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lecce
2
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Udinese have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 42%, Udinese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 39% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 42% of games; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lecce's recent matches and 58% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 39% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Udinese tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Udinese in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Lecce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.04 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 27% | Draw 34% | Udinese 39%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Udinese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.00 PPG, Udinese 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.