Lecce 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecce face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Udinese at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecce — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lecce at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Udinese stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lecce 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Lecce have won 1, Udinese 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Lecce 0–1 Udinese — a Udinese win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 41% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Udinese 44%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Lecce recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.04 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.675 / defence 1.110 | Udinese attack 0.898 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.271. Lecce's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Lecce's last 63 games and Udinese's last 63.
Result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 34% | Udinese 39%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.65 | Draw 2.95 | Udinese 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lecce 50% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 34% | Udinese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lecce 1.04 / Udinese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.675 / def 1.110 | Udinese attack 0.898 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Udinese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Udinese kick off?
Lecce vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Lecce 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Lecce vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Udinese part of?
Lecce vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 27% chance of winning, Udinese a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lecce and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lecce vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 63 games and Udinese's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
27%
3.65
34%
2.95
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.30
1.27
Udinese xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lecce and 1.27 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce come into this having played 63 games, going 14W 21D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.11 PPG from 63 outings (15W 25D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.00 PPG, Udinese on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lecce's home form reads 9W 11D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Lecce (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Lecce vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 21D 28L in their last 63 games (1.00 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 25D 23L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Udinese away?
Lecce's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.23 PPG; Udinese away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lecce have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2026, when Lecce won Udinese 0-3 Lecce.
Lecce's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Lecce
2
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Udinese?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 3, Udinese have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Udinese 0-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 42%, Udinese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 39% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 42% of games; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lecce's recent matches and 58% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 39% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lecce's recent matches and 68% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Lecce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.04 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 27% | Draw 34% | Udinese 39%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Udinese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.00 PPG, Udinese 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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