Hellas Verona 3-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.30 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 3 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 56% versus AS Roma 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | AS Roma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.54 xG and AS Roma 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.964 / defence 1.242 | AS Roma attack 0.819 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.331. Data: 48 Hellas Verona games / 48 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 33%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Hellas Verona 1.54 / AS Roma 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.964 / def 1.242 | AS Roma attack 0.819 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.35
AS Roma xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Hellas Verona 3 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma part of?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 42% chance of winning, AS Roma a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hellas Verona and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
42%
2.39
25%
4.02
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.90
1.35
AS Roma xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.35 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 12W 11D 25L from 48 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 14L across 48 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 8W 6D 10L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.56 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 21W 13D 14L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or AS Roma away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.25 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, AS Roma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 62%, AS Roma 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hellas Verona and 58% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hellas Verona's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hellas Verona's matches and 58% of AS Roma's.
Do Hellas Verona and AS Roma tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out AS Roma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat AS Roma 3-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.54 xG and AS Roma 1.35 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against AS Roma attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 33%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.