Empoli 1-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus Como in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 4 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Como (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Como have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Empoli, 0.90 for Como — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Como half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 33% versus Como 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 31% | Como 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.96 xG and Como 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.579 / defence 0.804 | Como attack 0.775 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.325. Empoli's attack strength of 0.579 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Empoli games / 10 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 37% | Draw 33% | Como 30%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Como 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Como's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Como 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 37% | Draw 33% | Como 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Empoli 0.96 / Como 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.579 / def 0.804 | Como attack 0.775 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Empoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Como xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Como kick off?
Empoli vs Como kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Como?
Empoli 1 - 0 Como.
Where is Empoli vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Como part of?
Empoli vs Como is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 37% chance of winning, Como a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Como?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Empoli and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Como in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Como (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Empoli vs Como?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.58x the league average against Como's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.78x) against Empoli's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.04
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.79
0.83
Como xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 13.8 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Empoli and 0.83 for Como, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 14D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.71 PPG from 48 outings (23W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 5W 8D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.46 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Como in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 14D 23L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while Como have gone 23W 13D 12L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.96 PPG; Como away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Empoli
1
Draws
0
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Como have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Como last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Como 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Como?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 21%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Empoli) and 50% (Como).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Empoli's recent matches and 50% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Como tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Como in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Como 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Como 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.96 xG and Como 0.83 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Como landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.58 / defence 0.80 against Como attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 37% | Draw 33% | Como 30%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 31%, Como 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Como's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.