Bologna 1-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lecce travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lecce have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.20 PPG versus Lecce's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Bologna hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Lecce, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 4–0 with Bologna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bologna and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Lecce trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Lecce 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 43% | Lecce 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.08 xG and Lecce 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.829 / defence 0.802 | Lecce attack 0.558 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.323. Data: 47 Bologna games / 48 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Lecce 5.26. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Lecce's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Lecce 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG Bologna 1.08 / Lecce 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.829 / def 0.802 | Lecce attack 0.558 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Bologna (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Lecce xG
30%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Bologna 1 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Bologna vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 46% chance of winning, Lecce a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Bologna and Lecce in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bologna vs Lecce?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.7%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
46%
2.17
35%
2.88
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.67
0.59
Lecce xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.29
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Bologna and 0.59 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 20W 20D 7L from 47 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 22L across 47 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 12W 9D 2L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 2W 8D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.72 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 20D 7L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Lecce have gone 9W 16D 22L in their last 47 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.96 PPG; Lecce away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lecce in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 39%, Lecce 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Bologna and 30% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Lecce in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bologna's recent matches and 35% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Bologna's recent games and 30% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lecce tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lecce in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Lecce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lecce 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.08 xG and Lecce 0.59 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Lecce attack 0.56 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 46% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 43%, Lecce 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lecce's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.